Does the forecast rank industries by what they earn?
The forecaster's published
direction accuracy is measured on its training target — the next four
weeks' average against the last four weeks' average — and half of that
target is already known at the anchor. This table scores the same
forecasts against the buy-and-hold return the Planner quotes, with the
market level removed, which is the only thing the allocator's industry
ranking can act on. Anchors overlap almost completely at the longer
horizons, so the p-value is Newey–West (HAC) rather than i.i.d., and the
independent-period count is shown next to it: a strong-looking result
off five independent periods is a hint, not a finding.
| Horizon | Held-out era | Anchors |
Cross-sectional ρ | Direction accuracy |
Top 5 − bottom 5 | Win rate | HAC p |
Independent periods | Level map |